Confusion Matrix

Netica

The Confusion Matrix

Confusion Matrix:  The first part of the Test Net with Cases report is a confusion matrix titled "Confusion:"  The possible states of Spark Quality are good, bad and very_bad.  For each case processed, Netica generated beliefs for each of these states. The most likely state (i.e. the one with the highest belief) was chosen as its prediction for the value of Spark Quality.  

This was then compared with the true value of Spark Quality for that case, providing the case file could supply it.  The confusion matrix supplies the total number of cases in each of the 9 situations: (Predicted=good, Actual=good), (Predicted=bad, Actual=good), etc.  If the network is performing well then the entries along the main diagonal will be large compared to those off of it.

Error Rate:  The next part of the report is "Error rate = 6.325%".  This means that in 6.325% of the cases for which the case file supplied a Spark Quality value, the network predicted the wrong value, where the prediction was taken as the state with highest belief (same as for the confusion matrix).

Other sections of the Test Net with Cases Report:

Scoring Rule Results

Calibration & Times Surprised Table

Quality of Test